# Energy transition outlook 2026: a security-first path could warm slightly less than the base case - Published: 2026-11-10 (updated 2026-11-10) - Author: [Environment News](https://environmentnews.io/author/environmentnews-io.md) - Topics: [News](https://environmentnews.io/news.md) - About: [Wood Mackenzie](https://www.woodmac.com/), [Energy Transition Outlook 2026-27](https://www.woodmac.com/market-insights/topics/energy-transition-outlook/) - Based on: [As the World Reaches a Fork in the Transition Road, Pursuing Energy Security Could Unexpectedly Lower Emissions, Says Wood Mackenzie](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/11/10/3399226/0/en/as-the-world-reaches-a-fork-in-the-transition-road-pursuing-energy-security-could-unexpectedly-lower-emissions-says-wood-mackenzie.html), GlobeNewswire, 2026-11-10 - Based on: [Energy transition outlook: 2026/27 update](https://www.woodmac.com/market-insights/topics/energy-transition-outlook/), Wood Mackenzie - Based on: [Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504), U.S. Energy Information Administration - Based on: [Temperatures](https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/), Climate Action Tracker - Source: https://environmentnews.io/news/energy-transition-outlook-2026-security-lowers-warming/ - Publication: Environment News - Publisher: Connectively (Terkel, Inc.) - Editorial policy: https://environmentnews.io/editorial-policy/ - AI use: Connectively's automated system wrote this article with AI from a press release issued by Wood Mackenzie on November 10, 2026, linked under Sources. Statements about the company and its products are the company's. The illustration was generated with AI. The article was assembled and published automatically, without an editor's review. Report errors to corrections@connectively.us. Countries racing to cut fuel imports could end up warming the planet slightly less than the path Wood Mackenzie sees as most likely, the firm said on November 10, 2026. Its Energy Transition Outlook 2026 update puts a security-first world on a 2.5°C path by 2100, against 2.6°C in its central case, because electrification does the work. ## Key points - Wood Mackenzie's Energy Transition Outlook 2026-27 models five scenarios to 2060, adding two new ones this year: Energy Security and Growth First. - The consultancy puts its Base Case, the outcome it sees as most likely, at 2.6°C of warming by 2100; Energy Security at 2.5°C; Growth First above 3°C; Country Pledges at 2°C; and Net Zero at 1.5°C. - In the Base Case, global oil and other liquids demand peaks at about 109 million barrels a day in 2031, and global power demand doubles by 2060. - Wood Mackenzie sizes the investment needed to 2060 at US$147 trillion to US$189 trillion, with roughly half going to electrification and grids. - It says the US holds 53% of an advanced nuclear pipeline that reached 85 GW in the third quarter of 2026. ## Why would energy security lower emissions? Because replacing imported oil and gas usually means electrifying, and electricity wastes less energy than burning fuel. Wood Mackenzie's Energy Security scenario imagines major economies treating this year's Strait of Hormuz crisis as a lasting turning point and building nuclear, geothermal and renewable power at home to escape chokepoint risk. The scale of that exposure is large: the US Energy Information Administration says oil moving through the strait averaged 20 million barrels a day in 2024, about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption ([EIA](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504)). > "The lower emissions are a structural consequence of which technologies a security-first strategy rewards, not which ones it intends to deploy." > > — Prakash Sharma, Vice President, Head of Scenarios and Technologies, Wood Mackenzie The firm notes that this path leans less on hydrogen and carbon capture than its Base Case does, since both depend on trade, heavy capital and steady policy support. ## How do the five scenarios in the energy transition outlook 2026 compare? They span a 1.5°C world to one above 3°C, and Wood Mackenzie treats the two most ambitious as benchmarks rather than forecasts. Its central 2.6°C sits where independent trackers put today's policies: Climate Action Tracker projects about 2.6°C of warming from current policies worldwide, and 1.9°C if governments meet their long-term and net-zero targets ([Climate Action Tracker](https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/)). | Scenario | What countries prioritise | Warming by 2100 | |---|---|---| | Net Zero | The Paris Agreement's most ambitious goal | 1.5°C | | Country Pledges | Delivering announced net zero pledges | 2°C | | Energy Security | Cutting import dependence through electrification and domestic supply | 2.5°C | | Base Case | Wood Mackenzie's most likely outcome | 2.6°C | | Growth First | Economic growth above all else | Above 3°C | In Growth First, the firm says, demand from AI and a growing economy keeps fossil plants running longer, delays retirements and leaves renewables unable to push fossil fuels aside at scale. ## What happens to oil, gas and coal? Wood Mackenzie expects fossil demand to stay resilient despite the Hormuz shock. In its Base Case, liquids demand stays within 5% of its 2031 peak until 2041, gas peaks in 2042, and coal, which it says peaked in 2024, declines slowly. Under Energy Security, oil demand falls away faster after 2030 and ends 8 million barrels a day below the Base Case by 2040. ## What does the outlook mean for climate targets? Our analysis: for readers tracking climate policy, the report changes the question from how fast countries cut carbon to why they build what they build. Wood Mackenzie says nations are now choosing security and growth over climate goals, and that the gap to its 2°C and 1.5°C pathways widened again this year. Its finding is that the security-driven choices many governments are already making could still bring emissions down, through electrification, even when cutting carbon is not their purpose. Sharma's point that countries cannot have low costs, domestic manufacturing, independent supply chains, fast decarbonisation and low public spending all at once frames the trade-offs ahead. ## Frequently asked questions ### Who publishes the Energy Transition Outlook? Wood Mackenzie, an energy and natural resources research and data firm. The 2026-27 edition is part of its Lens Energy Transition Scenarios and covers 105 energy markets to 2060. ### What is the Base Case? It is the scenario Wood Mackenzie considers the most likely outcome for the energy world, and it reaches 2.6°C of warming by 2100. ### How much clean power does the Base Case add? Wood Mackenzie says solar, wind and battery capacity grows 60% by 2030 and sixfold by 2060 in its Base Case. ### Can journalists get the report? Wood Mackenzie says a shorter version written for the media is available on request from its media relations team. ## Sources - [As the World Reaches a Fork in the Transition Road, Pursuing Energy Security Could Unexpectedly Lower Emissions, Says Wood Mackenzie](https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/11/10/3399226/0/en/as-the-world-reaches-a-fork-in-the-transition-road-pursuing-energy-security-could-unexpectedly-lower-emissions-says-wood-mackenzie.html): press release from Wood Mackenzie via GlobeNewswire, 10 November 2026. - [Energy transition outlook: 2026/27 update](https://www.woodmac.com/market-insights/topics/energy-transition-outlook/): Wood Mackenzie's report page, with its executive summary. - [Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint](https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=65504): US Energy Information Administration. - [Temperatures](https://climateactiontracker.org/global/temperatures/): Climate Action Tracker's global warming projections.